Incorporating the Real Estate Cycle into Management Decisions—Evidence from Germany

Martin Wernecke, Nico Rottke and Christoph Holzmann

Journal of Real Estate Portfolio Management, 2004, vol. 10, issue 3, 171-186

Abstract: Executive Summary. As in many industrialized countries, German real estate markets have been subject to cyclical fluctuations. Rottke and Wernecke (2002) made an attempt to estimate the extent to which cycle knowledge might be implemented in practice. This paper presents the results of a survey of German real estate practitioners. It identifies rent and price fluctuations as the two most important cycle variables. In addition, the general business cycle is perceived as the most important influence on the real estate cycle. Still, German market participants think of the real estate cycle more in terms of opportunities than of risks. Finally, the study finds that cycle strategy is important especially in project development, portfolio management and real estate finance.

Date: 2004
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DOI: 10.1080/10835547.2004.12089706

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