Correlation and causation between the UN Human Development Index and national and personal wealth and resource exploitation

Janez Sušnik and Pieter van der Zaag

Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 2017, vol. 30, issue 1, 1705-1723

Abstract: Human development is increasingly on global policy agendas, in particular related to the Sustainable Development Goals. Here, the UN Human Development Index is analysed for correlation and causation with economic and resource parameters using novel quantitative techniques. Global datasets at national resolution are used to explore correlation and causation with the HDI. The whole HDI is not correlated to national totals of wealth or resource use, but is strongly correlated to personal wealth and resource use. The multi-spatial convergence cross mapping method is adapted to shed light on causation in this system. It is shown that the HDI is tightly linked to the economy and to personal resource use. Analysis of the HDI sub-indices reveals subtleties easily overlooked. For example, it is shown that access to water and electricity strongly influence GNI. It is shown that simple resource accumulation/exploitation is less important in determining HDI growth than personal wealth and access to resources. That is, equitable distribution is more effective than gross accumulation in influencing the HDI. Strong feedback means that investments in water treatment and distribution networks, for example, will have strong effects on HDI change, a conclusion that may play an important role in national developmental policy debate.

Date: 2017
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DOI: 10.1080/1331677X.2017.1383175

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