Revisiting the nexus between exchange rate, exports and economic growth: further evidence from Asia

Wei Zhu, Fayyaz Ahmad, Muhammad Umar Draz, Ilhan Ozturk and Abdul Rehman

Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 2022, vol. 35, issue 1, 7128-7146

Abstract: The economic growth of developing countries has been associated with their exports, and the existing research suggests that exchange rates significantly influence the exports. This study used panel data to investigate the potential nexus of gross domestic product (GDP), exports and exchange rates in Asian countries over the period of 1981–2016. The results portray that nexus between exchange rate and exports holds true for Export-led Growth (ELG) and Growth-led Exports (GLE) hypotheses. This study used the Wald test under Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) with all necessary specifications tests to identify the possible nexus of variables, and applied the fixed effects model along with control variables. The results imply that an undervalued currency enhances exports and has a significant impact on economic growth. Additionally, the results of Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) model with financial crises dummy suggested that the estimations are robust. Keeping in view the aforementioned findings, a timely and balanced policy can play a pivotal role in improving the long term nexus of exchange rates, exports and economic growth.

Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1080/1331677X.2022.2059692

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