COVID-19 policy responses, social norms, and behavior change in MENA

Amira El-Shal and Eman Moustafa

Middle East Development Journal, 2024, vol. 16, issue 2, 196-219

Abstract: Inducing behavior change is a missing factor in the face of viral threats. We provide evidence from a natural experiment in 2020 on the effects of containment, closure, and economic policy responses to COVID-19 on change in human mobility behavior in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region and worldwide. We also examine how social norms, namely risk taking and patience, and institutional trust, could explain the heterogenous effects of policy responses on behavior change. Our results show that the stringency of containment and closure policies decreased human mobility in MENA and worldwide. Risk-averse populations and populations with low-time preference were more likely to pre act and lower their mobility independent of containment and closure policies. The effectiveness of risk communication in promoting positive mobility change increased by the level of institutional trust. Specifically in MENA, populations were less responsive to the actual disease risk and the public perception of that risk. Familiarity with COVID-19 induced negative behavior change among impatient populations. Economic support policies promoted strong positive mobility change among low-risk and high-time preference populations. Income support seems to be the effective economic policy response in low-income countries and debt relief the effective one in higher-income countries.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2024.2399482

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