NBA Game Results Versus Sports Gaming Information

Artsiom Revin and R. Justin Chimka

International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, 2013, vol. 13, issue 3, 885-896

Abstract: The aim of this study was to predict final score difference between home and away NBA teams for a regular season. Separate linear regression models depending on total over/under were fit to data before the all-star break, and checked for adequacy. Consistently important effects include the closing line, rest days, non-college players, and age. Finally models were checked with data after the all-star break. We assigned a monetary value to each out-of-sample bet on a game and calculated the expected profit for each model.

Date: 2013
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DOI: 10.1080/24748668.2013.11868696

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