The spillover effect of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: labor response in a neighboring economy

Dinara Alpysbayeva, Dana Bazarkulova and Galiya Sagyndykova

Post-Soviet Affairs, 2025, vol. 41, issue 4, 311-347

Abstract: This paper examines the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on employment in Kazakhstan due to an influx of migrants. Using a Synthetic Control Method (SCM), our study reveals a varying effect on Kazakhstan’s employment following the invasion. We find a notable effect on employment in treated cities with regional variation. We also find the heterogeneous impact of forced migration across different demographic characteristics and report that young males and males with vocational education are the most vulnerable group, which aligns with expectations based on the nature of the shock and the aggregate composition of migrant flows. Our findings highlight that ongoing uncertainty and evolving geopolitics can have lasting consequences on Kazakhstan’s labor market. This research contributes to the understanding of labor market effects in emerging economies amidst (semi-)forced migration. The historical, cultural, and economic ties between Russia and Kazakhstan, coupled with their shared membership in the Eurasian Economic Union, present a distinctive context. Our research highlights the necessity of ongoing monitoring and adaptive strategies to mitigate the long-term impacts.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1080/1060586X.2025.2515808

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