Structural labour market change, cognitive work, and entry to parenthood in Germany

Honorata Bogusz, Anna Matysiak and Michaela Kreyenfeld

Population Studies, 2025, vol. 79, issue 2, 225-251

Abstract: Technological change and globalization have caused unprecedented transformations of labour markets, resulting in a growing division between workers who perform cognitive vs non-cognitive tasks. To date, only few studies have addressed the fertility effects of these long-term structural changes. This study fills that gap. We measure the cognitive task content of occupations using data from the Employment Survey of the German Federal Institute for Vocational Education and Training, which we link to individual histories from the German Socio-Economic Panel 1984–2018. We find that women and men with non-cognitive jobs are increasingly less likely to enter parenthood; this is reflected in lower first-birth intensities but also in higher probabilities of childlessness compared with workers in highly cognitive jobs. These findings imply that structural shifts in the labour market are exacerbating disparities between low-skilled and highly skilled individuals, not only within the labour market but also in the realm of family formation.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2024.2372018

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