Aantekeninge Oor Vigsmortaliteit: Die Groot Onsekerheid

J L Sadie

Studies in Economics and Econometrics, 2004, vol. 28, issue 2, 41-52

Abstract: After identifying the many uncertainties regarding actual levels of AIDS mortality, it is suggested that writers who try their hands at estimating and projecting such levels should evince a large measure of humility, and take heed of the warning of a simulation modeler, Nicolas Brouard: projection of the AIDS epidemic must have a much lower reliability than that for a similar demographic process even if the infectivity level were as reliable as the fertility level” (1989:84).

Date: 2004
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DOI: 10.1080/10800379.2004.12106366

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