Workforce population modelling: Population by convolution

Robert Mark Bryce and Jillian Anne Henderson

Journal of the Operational Research Society, 2025, vol. 76, issue 10, 2091-2097

Abstract: In this paper we pursue the premise that personnel inflow into a workforce population maps to the future outflow via the survival time distribution. This directly leads to a population by convolution approach, where the survival time distribution is convolved with the intake profile over time to find the future outflow; the population level is then the cumulative sum of the difference between the intake and outflow. This approach is simple, computationally fast, and provides the expected (mean) population level. We contrast convolution with the standard state-of-the-art Markovian approach, which assumes a memoryless survival time distribution, noting that determining population by convolution is a generalization.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1080/01605682.2025.2457647

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