How does upzoning impact land use and transport: a case study of Seattle

Naifu Fan, Kara M. Kockelman, Peter Caballero, Jason Hawkins and Xiaohong Chen

Transportation Planning and Technology, 2024, vol. 47, issue 5, 656-680

Abstract: This work simulates the long-term land use and transportation impacts of upzoning in the region of Seattle, Washington at the parcel level, using UrbanSim and an agent-based travel demand model (SoundCast). Scenario results are compared to illuminate differences in a Business-as-Usual (BAU) future versus two upzoning scenarios that upzone all single-family-use residential parcels in the region or just those in the City of Seattle to 3 dwelling units per parcel. Under BAU, affordability falls 20% and rents rise 6% between 2014 and 2050, as the regional population grows to 5.7 million. With regional upzoning, 68,400 more dwellings are added, with rents 10% lower compared to the BAU future. The housing affordability index falls from 75.3 to 67.31, a significant improvement over the BAU scenario's sharper fall to 60.6. If only the City of Seattle upzones, only 3,400 additional units are predicted, but rents are 5.2% lower than the BAU case.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1080/03081060.2024.2311829

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