Pricing of Joint Life Long-Term Care Insurance Based on a Multistate Markov Model

Qin Shang, Xueyang Wang, Xuezhi Qin and Xiaohui Zhao

North American Actuarial Journal, 2024, vol. 28, issue 2, 361-372

Abstract: This study considers elderly couples as the research object and proposes a new mode of joint life long-term care insurance. Based on the data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal, the study is used to define six health states and to establish an ordered logistic model to derive a health-state transition probability matrix for elderly couples in China. On the basis of the estimated annual transfer probability matrix, a Markov model is selected for the calculation of premiums of joint life long-term care insurance. In addition, the study analyzes the impacts of initial health status, age, residential area, and care status on state transition probabilities and joint life long-term care insurance (LTCI) premiums.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1080/10920277.2023.2208192

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