The Debt Ceiling Crises, Policy Uncertainty, and Interest Group Competition: Initial Evidence

Sean K. Byrne

The International Trade Journal, 2024, vol. 38, issue 1, 72-90

Abstract: Congress faces challenges when attempting to raise the debt limit promptly. We address a gap in the literature by investigating whether policy uncertainty or interest group competition influenced the U.S. Treasury bill spread during three debt ceiling crises. Hence, we used an auto-regressive distributed lag model, examining a novel set of economic, financial, and political data. Both policy uncertainty and net total group funding in opposition negatively impacted the U.S. Treasury yield spread. Interest groups in support had a positive effect. This is important, as the U.S. Treasury bill is normally not called into question for its risk.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1080/08853908.2023.2270695

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