Beyond fossil fuels: Considering land-based emissions reshapes the carbon intensity of modern economic growth (Spain, 1860–2017)

Juan Infante-Amate and Eduardo Aguilera

Historical Methods: A Journal of Quantitative and Interdisciplinary History, 2024, vol. 57, issue 4, 226-241

Abstract: One of the main challenges facing our society is to decouple levels of well-being from environmental impacts, particularly greenhouse gas emissions (GHGe). Historical knowledge can provide crucial information on the feasibility of achieving this goal. However, very few studies have evaluated the interactions between GHGe and gross domestic product (GDP) or well-being indicators in the long term. So far this literature has only considered CO2 emissions from fossil fuels, disregarding other gases and activities that, as we now know, have played a key role in driving climate change. In this article, we estimate total GHGe and analyze their relationship with GDP trajectories in Spain between 1860 and 2017. The results demonstrate that land-based emissions have been a significant contributor to overall GHGe in historical perspective. By incorporating these emissions, the carbon intensity of GDP—that is, greenhouse gas emissions per unit of GDP—shifts from an inverted U-curve (as traditionally assumed when only considering CO2 emissions from fossil fuels) to a consistent decline over time.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1080/01615440.2024.2378799

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