Enflasyon Belirsizligi ve Beklentilerdeki Uyusmazlik

Timur Hulagu and Saygin Sahinoz
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Saygin Cevik

CBT Research Notes in Economics from Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Abstract: [TR] Bu notta TCMB Beklenti Anketi verileri kullanilarak Turkiye icin bir enflasyon belirsizligi olcutu olusturulmaya calisilmis ve anket katilimcilari arasindaki uyusmazligin olusturulan bu olcut icin bir gosterge olarak kullanilip kullanilamayacagi arastirilmistir. Bulgular, 2006 oncesi donem icin uyusmazligin enflasyon belirsizligi gostergesi olarak kullanilabilecegine isaret ederken, enflasyon hedeflemesi rejimiyle beraber bu iliskinin kayboldugunu ortaya koymaktadir. [EN] This note introduces a measure for inflation uncertainty in Turkey by using the CBRT Survey of Expectations and investigates whether the disagreement among the survey participants can be used as a proxy for inflation uncertainty. Results reveal the importance of time period analyzed. In particular, disagreement seems to be a good proxy for inflation uncertainty 2001-2006 period while this relationship vanishes with the inflation targeting regime after 2006.

Date: 2011
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