Euro Bolgesi Merkez ve Cevre Ulkeleri Arasindaki Yapisal Farkliliklar ve Parasal Birlikten Ayrilma Kararinin Olasi Sonuclari

Yasemin Barlas, Koray Kalafatcılar () and Neslihan Kaya

CBT Research Notes in Economics from Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Abstract: [TR] 2010 yilinin ikinci ceyreginde Yunanistan’da beliren borc krizi kisa surede kamu ve bankacilik kesimlerinde sorun yasayan diger euro bolgesi cevre ekonomilerine yayilmistir. Cevre ulkelerdeki sorunlarin giderilmesi icin gerekli finansmanin onemli bir kisminin merkez ulkelere yuklenmesi, cevre ve merkez ulkeler arasindaki yapisal farkliliklar ve parasal birligin dagilma ihtimali tartismalarini da beraberinde getirmistir. Bu notta, parasal birlikten ayrilma kararinin merkez ve cevre ulkeler acisindan degerlendirmesi yapilmaktadir. Ilk bakista eurodan vazgecmenin cevre ulkeler acisindan rekabet gucu avantaji yaratmak suretiyle uretim artisi saglama potansiyeli tasidigi gorulmekte olsa dahi, derinlemesine yapilan bir inceleme parasal birlikten ayrilma kararinin ekonomik maliyetinin oldukca yuksek oldugunu ortaya koymaktadir. Ote yandan, parasal birlikten ayrilma karari merkez ulkeler acisindan cevre ulkeleri finanse etme yukunden kurtulma imkani saglasa dahi, finansal baglantilarin guclulugu olumsuz etkileri beraberinde getirebilecektir. [EN] The debt crisis, emerged in Greece in the second quarter of 2010, has quickly spread among the other peripheral countries of the euro zone with troubled fiscal and banking sectors. The fact that a significant portion of the bail-out costs of the periphery countries was put on the core countries has given rise to the debate on the structural differences between the cores and the peripheries; and ignited the discussion on the possibility of the disintegration of the monetary union. This note assesses the decision of leaving the euro from the perspective of both periphery and core economies. Although at a first glance the euro break-up seems to have the potential to boost economic growth in peripheries through more competitive currency rates, an in-depth analysis illustrates that the economic cost of leaving the euro is rather high. As for the core countries, while leaving the monetary union presents an opportunity to abate the burden of financing periphery debt in the face of maintaining the common currency, the strength of the financial linkages are likely to bring about negative effects.

Date: 2011
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