Credit Rating Upgrade to “Investment†Level: Trends Before and After the Upgrade

İbrahim Kanlı and Yasemin Barlas

CBT Research Notes in Economics from Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Abstract: [EN] This note analyses how selected financial and macroeconomic indicators of emerging economies upgraded to “Investment grade†in the period between 1990 and 2011 behave before and after the upgrade. Results reveal that upgraded countries experience capital inflows through both portfolio and credit channels; however, a particular trend cannot be depicted for foreign direct investment. While cost of external debt falls significantly following the upgrade, the average maturity of debt does not portray a significant change. Domestic currency appreciates significantly with respect to the reference group both before and after the upgrade. Total external debt, which formerly declines mostly due to reduction in public debt, displays an upward trend in the post-upgrade period. Meanwhile, current account deteriorates in most of the cases. The surge in foreign credit reflects on domestic credit market, as domestic credit to private sector accelerates and cost of domestic lending falls. Finally, despite higher post-upgrade absolute growth rates, relative growth performances in pre- and post-upgrade periods do not differ statistically significantly. [TR] Bu notta 1990 yilindan itibaren kredi notu “yatirim yapilabilir†seviyeye yukseltilen ulkelerde finansal ve makroekonomik gostergelerin not artiriminin oncesi ve sonrasindaki egilimleri incelenmektedir. Analiz sonuclari, kredi notu yatirim yapilabilir seviyeye yukseltilen ulkelerin portfoy yatirimlari ve kredi kanallariyla yabanci sermayeye ulasim imkaninin arttigina, ne var ki dogrudan yabanci yatirimlarinda belirgin bir egilim degisiminin olmadigina isaret etmektedir. Not artisi sonrasi yurt disindan borclanma maliyeti duserken, borclanmanin vadesinde anlamli bir degisim kaydedilmemektedir. Kur, not artisindan once deger kazanma egilimine girmekte ve bu egilim not artisi sonrasinda da devam etmektedir. Diger taraftan yurt disi finansmana ulasimin kolaylasmasiyla, not artirimi oncesinde dusus egiliminde olan toplam dis borc not artirimi sonrasinda tekrar artmakta, cari dengede ise bozulma gozlenmektedir. Yurt disi kredi imkaninin artmasi yurt ici kredi piyasalarina da yansimakta, ozel sektore acilan krediler ivmelenirken kredi faizleri dusmektedir. ote yandan, not artisi sonrasi mutlak buyume hizi not artisi oncesi seviyelerin uzerinde gerceklesirken, goreli buyume performanslarinda istatistiksel olarak anlamli bir degisimden bahsedilememektedir.

Date: 2012
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