Gelismekte Olan Ulkelerde Ozel Emeklilik Reformlarinin Yurtici Tasarruf Oranlarina Etkisi: Ampirik Bulgular

Ozgur Ozel and Cihan Yalcin

CBT Research Notes in Economics from Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Abstract: [TR] Turkiye’de yurtici tasarruf orani son yillarda belirgin bir dusus gostermistir. Soz konusu dusus tasarruf-yatirim aciginin buyumesinde dolayisiyla yuksek cari islemler aciginin ortaya cikmasinda etkili olmustur. Bu cercevede, soz konusu acigi dusurmek uzere hanehalki tasarruflarini artirmaya yonelik olarak Bireysel Emeklilik Sistemi (BES)’nde 2012 yilinda degisiklik yapilmistir. Bu calismada, ozellikle 1990’li yillardan itibaren gelismekte olan bazi ulkelerde yapilan ozel emeklilik reformlarinin soz konusu ulkelerdeki yurt ici tasarruf oranlari uzerindeki etkisi test edilmektedir. Boylece, Turkiye’de uygulamaya konulan yeni BES’in yurt ici tasarruflar uzerindeki muhtemel etkilerine yonelik bir degerlendirme ortaya konulabilecektir. Ekonometrik bulgular, gelismekte olan ulkelerdeki ozel emeklilikle ilgili reformlarin gecikmeli olarak yurtici tasarruf oranlarinda yaklasik 1,5 puana kadar artisa yol acabildigini gostermektedir. Soz konusu etkinin, agirlikli olarak zorunlu ozel emeklilik sisteminin benimsendigi ulkelerde gozlendigi dikkate alindiginda, Turkiye’de uygulanmakta olan gonullu sistemin yurt ici tasarruflar uzerindeki etkisinin daha sinirli olabilecegi dusunulmektedir. [EN] Domestic savings rate in Turkey has exhibited a sharp drop in recent years. This has led to an enlargement in saving-investment gap or the current account deficit. As a result, existing private pension system (PPS) was revised in 2012 in order to encourage household savings and thus reduce this gap. In this study, we estimate the impact of private pension reforms carried out since 1990s in developing countries on their domestic saving rates. This allows us to evaluate the possible impact of PPS reform in Turkey on domestic saving rates. Econometric estimations suggest that the abovementioned private pension reforms in developing countries, though with a lag, may lead to an increase in saving rates up to about 1.5 percentage points. The private pension reform in Turkey that is based on voluntary schemes is expected to have relatively limited impact in Turkey given most of countries in the data set have adopted mandatory pension schemes.

Date: 2013
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:tcb:econot:1306

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