Turkiye’de Finansal Cevrimler ve Is Cevrimleri: Ne Kadar Farkli, Ne Kadar Baglantili?

Mahir Binici, Yavuz Selim Hacihasanoglu and Samet Kutuk

CBT Research Notes in Economics from Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Abstract: [TR] Bu calismada, 1987-2015 doneminde Turkiye’de is cevrimlerinin ve finansal cevrimlerin ozellikleri uc farkli piyasa verisi (kredi, hisse senedi ve doviz kuru) kullanilarak incelenmekte ve stres donemleri ortaya konulmaktadir. Buna gore, Turkiye’de kredilere bagli finansal cevrimlerin suresi ortalamada is cevrimlerinden daha uzun surmektedir. Kredi piyasasi ve is cevrimleri arasinda pozitif yonlu yuksek iliski bulunmaktadir. Hem is cevrimleri hem de finansal cevrimler kisa sureli durgunluk donemlerinin ardindan uzun sureli buyume donemleri yasamislardir. Finansal cevrimlerde meydana gelen dalgalanma siddeti is cevrimlerinin uzerinde gerceklesmistir. Ote yandan, is cevrimlerinde yasanan stres donemleri genellikle buyume fazina girilmesiyle sona ermis, kredi piyasalarinin uzun donemli egilimini yakalamasi ise buyume fazina girilmesinden ancak belli bir sure sonra mumkun olmustur. BIST100 ve reel efektif doviz kuru finansal cevrimlerinin stres donemleri ise daha sik gerceklesmis, ancak diger olcutlere gore daha kisa surmustur. [EN] This study investigates characteristics of the business and financial cycles using data from three different markets (credit, stock, and exchange rate markets) and also defines stress periods of the cycles in the period 1987-2015. The average duration of credit cycles takes longer than business cycles’ and high level of synchronization is observed between business and credit cycles. Both business and financial cycles go long expansion phases after short contraction periods. The average amplitude of the financial cycles is higher than the average amplitude of the business cycles. Moreover, the stress periods in business cycles end up in the early phase of expansion while the recovery of credit cycles towards long term trend takes significant time after the expansion starts. Stock market index and real effective exchange rate cycles’ stress periods occur more frequently but take shorter than those of others.

Date: 2016
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