Firma Borclulugu ve Istihdami: Kisa ve Orta Vadeli Iliski

Baki Cem Sahin

CBT Research Notes in Economics from Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Abstract: [TR] Bu calismada borcluluk ve istihdam arasindaki iliski mikro bazli firma verisi kullanilarak kisa ve orta vadeli olmak uzere incelenmektedir. Sonuclar, firma borclulugundaki artisin istihdam buyumesi ile kisa vadede pozitif, orta vadede ise negatif yonde iliskili oldugunu ima etmektedir. Orta vadede borcluluk degisimi ve istihdam degisimi arasindaki negatif iliskinin firma is cevrimleri ve istihdaminin ortalamaya donus egiliminden bagimsiz oldugu teyit edilmektedir. Analizler ayni zamanda borcluluk degisimi ve istihdam degisimi arasindaki orta vadedeki negatif iliskide finansal kirilganlik kanalinin etkili olduguna isaret etmektedir. Sonuclar firma borcluluk seviyesi uzerinde etkili olabilecek finansal istikrar hedefli politikalarin dolayli olarak istihdam uzerinde de olumlu katkisinin olabilecegini gostermektedir. [EN] In this study, the relationship between firm leverage and employment in the short and medium term is investigated by using firm-level micro data. The results imply that the increase in firm leverage is positively related to employment growth in the short term, and negatively in the medium term. It has been confirmed that the negative relationship between the change in leverage and the change in employment in the medium term is independent of firm business cycles and the meanreverting tendency of employment. The analysis also indicates that the financial fragility channel is effective in the negative relationship between the change in leverage and the change in employment over the medium-term. The results show that policies aiming at financial stability, which may have an impact on the firm’s leverage level may also indirectly contribute positively to employment.

Date: 2024
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