Imalat Sanayine Iliskin Anket Gostergeleri Arasindaki Uyum ve Uretim ile Iliskisi

Aysu Celgin and Mert Gokcu

CBT Research Notes in Economics from Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Abstract: [TR] İstanbul Sanayi Odasi tarafindan yayimlanan Turkiye İmalat Satin Alma Yoneticileri Endeksi (PMI) ve Mustakil Sanayici ve İsadamlari Dernegi tarafindan aciklanan Satin Alma Mudurleri Endeksi (SAMEKS), iktisadi faaliyetin seyri hakkinda bilgi edinmek amaciyla takip edilen onemli anket gostergelerindendir. Bu iki onemli endeksin tarihsel olarak uyumlu hareket etmekle beraber, son yillarda daha belirgin olmak uzere, bazi donemlerde birbirlerinden ayristiklari gorulmektedir. Bu calismada, soz konusu ayrismanin kaynaklari farkli basliklar altinda incelendikten sonra her iki endeksin imalat sanayi uretimiyle olan iliskisi esik deger analizi ile incelenmektedir. Bu cercevede, PMI icin sabit esik degerin 50’nin altinda (47,9) oldugu ve SAMEKS sanayi endeksi ile yapilan analizde ise istatistiki olarak anlamli katsayilar elde edilemedigi gozlenmistir. Buna ek olarak, PMI gostergesinin imalat sanayi ile iliskisi yorumlanirken, endeksin seviyesinin yaninda degisiminin de kritik oldugu tespit edilmistir. Ozetle, analiz sonuclari, manset degerin yaninda anket göstergelerine butuncul bakis acisinin da onemli oldugunu ima etmektedir. [EN] Turkiye Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) published by Istanbul Chamber of Industry and Purchasing Managers’ Index (SAMEKS) released by Independent Industrialists’ and Businessmen's Association are among the important survey indicators which are monitored in order to obtain information about the course of economic activity. Although these two important indices have moved in tandem historically, it is observed that they have diverged from each other in some periods, more visibly in recent years. In this study, after examining the sources of this divergence under different headings, the relationship of both of these indices with the manufacturing industry production is examined with threshold value analysis. Accordingly, it is observed that the fixed threshold value for PMI is below 50 (47.9), and no statistically significant coefficients could be obtained in the analysis conducted by SAMEKS industry index. In addition, it has been detected that the change of the index as well as its level is critical when interpreting the relation between PMI indicator and the manufacturing industry. In sum, the analysis results imply that a holistic view of survey indicators is important as well as headline value.

Date: 2024
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