Firma Duzeyinde Ihracat Analizinde Kismi Yil Etkileri

Altan Aldan and Enver Sait Kurtaran

CBT Research Notes in Economics from Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Abstract: [TR] Ihracat piyasasina yeni giris yapan firmalarin ilk yil ihracati ihracata hangi ay basladigina bakilmaksizin ilgili takvim yilindaki ihracati olarak kayitlara gecmektedir. Bu durum yeni ihracatcilarin giris yilinda ihracat seviyesinin dusuk, ikinci yilda ise ihracat artisinin yuksek olarak olculmesine neden olmakta ve Bernard vd. (2017) tarafindan “kismi yil etkileri” olarak adlandirilmaktadir. Bu calismada kismi yil etkilerinin boyutu Turkiye verisi kullanilarak incelenmektedir. Calisma sonuclarina gore kismi yil etkileri ihracata yeni baslayan firmalarin baslangic yili ihracatlarini oldugundan yaklasik yuzde 56 daha dusuk gostermektedir. Benzer sekilde, ihracat artisinda yayilma marjinin katkisinin yaklasik yarisi kismi yil etkileri nedeniyle hatali olarak yogunlasma marji olarak degerlendirilmektedir. Calisma sonuclari Turkiye’de firma duzeyinde ihracat dinamiklerini inceleyen calismalarda kismi yil etkilerinin dikkate alinmasi gerektigine isaret etmektedir. [EN] Initial annual exports of new firms in the export market are calculated as their exports in the relevant calendar year, regardless of the month in which they started exporting. This situation causes the export level of new exporters to be low in the entry year and the export growth to be high in the second year, and it is referred to as “partial year effects” by Bernard et al. (2017). In this study, the size of partial year effects is examined using Turkish data. According to the study results, partial year effects understate the starting year exports of new entrants in the export market by approximately 56 percent. Similarly, approximately half of the contribution of the extensive margin to export growth is incorrectly evaluated as intensive margin due to partial year effects. The study results indicate that it is essential to take partial year effects into account in studies examining export dynamics at the firm level in Turkiye.

Date: 2024
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