Mevduat Dolarizasyonunu Etkileyen Unsurlar

Halil Ibrahim Aydin, Neslihan Kaya Eksi and Halil Ibrahim Korkmaz

CBT Research Notes in Economics from Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Abstract: [TR] Bu notta, Turkiye’de, gercek ve tuzel kisi ayriminda, yurt ici yerlesiklerin yabanci para (YP) mevduat tercihlerini etkileyen unsurlara iliskin bulgular paylasilmaktadir. Calismada yer alan analizler mevduat dolarizasyonunun, literaturle uyumlu olarak, parasal aktarimin temel unsurlarindan olan mevduat faizleri ve doviz kuru beklentileriyle yakindan iliskili oldugunu ortaya koymaktadir. Sonuclar, gercek kisi mevduat dolarizasyonunda doviz kurunda deger kaybi beklentisi, goreli getiri farki, ihtiyac kredisi-mevduat faiz farki, tuketici enflasyonu ve kuresel altin fiyatlarindaki degisimin anlamli oldugunu ortaya koymaktadir. Tuzel kisi ayriminda ise doviz kurunda deger kaybi beklentisi ve goreli getiri farkina ek olarak reel sektorun ihracat ve ithalat miktarlari ile finansal kesim disindaki firmalarin doviz yukumlulukleri de mevduat dolarizasyonunu aciklamada anlamli bulunmustur. YP mevduat talebinin tarihsel dinamiklerine bakildiginda, analiz doneminde gerek gercek kisi gerekse tuzel kisilerde YP mevduat talebinde getiri saglama ve Turk lirasi varliklarin degerini koruma amacinin one ciktigi gorulmektedir. Calismadan elde edilen bulgular, dolarizasyon egiliminde gozlenen katiliga dair bilgi icermekte ve bu yonuyle para politikasinin etki kanallarini ilgilendirmektedir. [EN] In this note, findings regarding the factors affecting Turkish residents' FX deposit preferences, at the distinction of real and legal entities, are presented. The analyses in the study reveal that deposit dollarization, in line with the literature, is closely related to deposit rate differentials and exchange rate expectations, which are the basic elements of monetary transmission. The results of the study reveal that changes in the exchange rate expectation, Turkish lira-USD deposit rate differentials, consumer loan-deposit spread, consumer inflation and global gold prices are significant in real person deposit dollarization. At the legal entity distinction, in addition to the exchange rate expectation and the relative return difference in deposit rates, the exports and imports of the real sector and the foreign exchange liabilities of companies excluding the financial sector were also found to be significant in explaining deposit dollarization. Moreover, looking at the historical dynamics of the demand for FX deposits during the analysis period, motives of yield and preserving the value of TL assets come to the fore in FX deposit demand surge of both real persons and legal entities. The findings of the study provide information about the rigidity in deposit dollarization trend and, in this respect, are related to the impact channels of monetary policy.

Date: 2024
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