Akaryakit Fiyat Olusumu: Brent Petrol Fiyati Ýyi Bir Tahmin Araci Mi?

Mert Gokcu and Eren Sezer

CBT Research Notes in Economics from Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Abstract: [TR] Akaryakit fiyatlari esas olarak urun fiyati, kar marjlari, gelir payi ve vergilerin toplamindan olusmaktadir. Nihai akaryakit fiyatlarinin olusumunda urun fiyati ve vergi kalemleri on plana cikmaktadir. Tarihsel olarak, vergi kaleminin nihai fiyat icindeki payinin gerilemesi ve urun fiyatinin payinin artmasi akaryakit fiyatlari acisindan urun fiyat gelismelerinin daha yakindan incelenmesi ihtiyacini dogurmaktadir. Nitekim, maliyet ve beklenti kanallariyla tuketici enflasyonunu etkileme potansiyeline sahip akaryakit fiyatlarinin tahmin modellerinde dogru degiskenler ile temsil edilmesi oldukca onemlidir. Bu calisma, oncelikle ulkemizdeki akaryakit fiyat olusumu hakkinda bilgi saglamaktadir. Ayrica, akaryakit fiyat tahmin modellerinde her akaryakit grubuna ozgu urun fiyatlarinin kullanilmasinin Brent petrol fiyatlarinin kullanimindan daha fazla bilgi icerigi olup olmadigini ekonometrik ve istatistiksel yontemler ile test etmektedir. Aciklama gucu ile birlikte orneklem disi tahmin performanslari dikkate alindiginda model sonuclari akaryakit fiyatlarini aciklamada Brent petrol yerine her akaryakit grubuna ozgu urun fiyatlarinin modellerde kullanilmasinin ilave bir bilgi sagladigina isaret etmektedir. Dolayisiyla, akaryakit urunlerinin fiyatlarina yonelik ongoruler olusturulurken her akaryakit grubuna ozgu urun fiyat gelismelerinin dikkate alinmasinin onem arz ettigi degerlendirilmektedir. [EN] Fuel prices are essentially the sum of product price, profit margins, portion of income and taxes. Product price and tax items come to the fore in the formation of final fuel prices. Historically, the decline in the share of taxes in the final price and the increase in the share of product price in fuel price formation necessitate a closer analysis of product price developments. As a matter fact, it is crucial that fuel prices, which have the potential to affect consumer inflation through cost and expectation channels, are represented by the proper variables in forecasting models. This study provides information on fuel price formation in Türkiye. Moreover, it is tested with econometric and statistical methods whether the use of product prices specific to each fuel group in fuel price forecasting models is more informative than the use of Brent oil prices. Considering the explanatory power and out-of-sample forecasting performances, the model results indicate that the use of product prices specific to each fuel group in the models instead of Brent oil in explaining fuel prices provides additional information. Therefore, it is considered important to take into account product price developments specific to each fuel group when formulating forecasts for the prices of fuel products.

Date: 2025
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