Inflation Expectations and Information Rigidity: A Randomized Control Trial

Okan Akarsu, Emrehan Aktug, Kubra Yildiz Ozertas and Huzeyfe Torun

CBT Research Notes in Economics from Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Abstract: [EN] In this study, using a randomized controlled trial (RCT), we generate exogenous variation in firms’expectations in Türkiye through providing them with publicly available information regardinginflation forecasts of several parties and official inflation target. Next, we examine how the reminderof already available information influences their inflation expectations and how exogenously shapedinflation expectations affect firm outcomes. Our findings reveal that information regarding theforecasts of professionals, central bank short- and long-term forecasts, and the official inflationtarget of the CBRT reduces the inflation expectations of firms compared to non-treated ones.Findings also suggest that firms with lower inflation expectations exhibit greater optimism aboutboth the broader economy and their own prospects, while higher expectations are associated withweaker anticipated outcomes. This highlights how inflation expectations influence firms' economicsentiment, with higher expectations linked to concerns about weaker activity. Although the effects ofthe treatments diminish over time, these results underscore the potential of targeted informationdissemination in shaping expectations and improving economic sentiment. [TR] Bu calisma, firmalara kamuya acik bilgiler saglamanin yuksek enflasyon ortaminda enflasyon beklentilerini ve ekonomik gorunumlerini nasil etkiledigini incelemektedir. Turkiye'de gerceklestirilen bir randomize kontrollu deney (RCT) ile firmalarin beklentilerinde dissal bir degisim yaratilmistir. Bulgularimiz, bilgi mudahalelerinin enflasyon beklentilerini onemli olcude azalttigini ve gecmis enflasyon, merkez bankasinin kisa ve uzun vadeli tahminleri ile resmi enflasyon hedefinin guclu sabitleyici etkiler gosterdigini ortaya koymaktadir. Bulgular ayrica, daha dusuk enflasyon beklentisine sahip firmalarin hem genel ekonomi hem de kendi gelecekleri konusunda daha iyimser oldugunu, daha yuksek beklentilere sahip firmalarin ise daha zayif sonuclar ongordugunu gostermektedir. Bu durum, enflasyon beklentilerinin firmalarin ekonomik algilarini nasil etkiledigini, yuksek beklentilerin daha zayif ekonomik aktiviteye dair endiselerle baglantili oldugunu ortaya koymaktadir. Bilgi paylasiminin etkileri zamanla azalmakla birlikte, bu sonuclar, hedefe yonelik bilgi yayiliminin beklentilerin sekillendirilmesinde ve ekonomik guvenin iyilestirilmesinde onemli bir potansiyel tasidigini vurgulamaktadir.

Date: 2025
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ara, nep-exp and nep-mon
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