A Composite Labor Market Conditions Index for Türkiye

Demirhan Demir and Selcuk Gul

CBT Research Notes in Economics from Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Abstract: [EN] This study aims to construct a Composite Labor Market Index (CLMI) to better understand the recent mixed signals from the labor market indicators. We follow the principal component analysis to construct the CLMI where the first component explains almost half of the common variation in a large dataset, consisting of 23 labor market indicators. While the unemployment rate and the broader unemployment rate may provide mixed signals regarding labor market conditions in some periods, our index offers a clearer assessment. Additionally, our index allows for the decomposition of the contributions from each set of labor market indicators to the overall labor market conditions over time. The results suggest that, in 2024, labor market conditions are stronger than what the broader unemployment indicators imply, yet weaker than what the main unemployment rate indicates. [TR] Bu calismanin amaci, son donemde isgucu piyasasi gostergelerinden gelen karisik sinyalleri daha iyi anlamak icin Bilesik Isgucu Piyasasi Endeksi'ni (BIPE) olusturmaktir. BIPE'yi olustururken, 23 isgucu piyasasi gostergesinden olusan genis bir veri setindeki ortak degiskenligin neredeyse yarisini aciklayan birinci bilesen kullanilmaktadir. Issizlik orani ve genis tanimli issizlik oranlari bazi donemlerde isgucu piyasasi kosullari hakkinda farkli sinyaller verse de endeksimiz daha net bir degerlendirme sunmaktadir. Ayrica endeksimiz, her bir isgucu piyasasi gostergesi grubunun zaman icinde genel isgucu piyasasi kosullarina katkilarinin ayristirilmasina da olanak saglamaktadir. Sonuclar, 2024 yilinda isgucu piyasasi kosullarinin, genis tanimli issizlik gostergelerinin isaret ettiginden daha guclu, ancak temel issizlik oraninin imâ ettiginden daha zayif oldugunu gostermektedir.

Date: 2025
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