Inter-Industry Labor Reallocation in Türkiye

Barbaros Eris, Sureyya Guder Kosgeroglu and Zeynep Yilmaz

CBT Research Notes in Economics from Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Abstract: [EN] This study examines patterns of inter-industry worker mobility in Türkiye using a structural gravity model framework. The study focuses on two key dimensions of mobility frictions: “Task Distance”, which measures the dissimilarity in skill requirements across industries, and “Transaction Index”, which captures the intensity of input–output relationships between sectors. Leveraging administrative matched employer-employee data from the Social Security Institution and firm-level trade data from the Revenue Administration, bilateral worker flows across industries between 2014 and 2023 are analyzed. Our results show that worker transitions are more likely to occur between industries with similar task structures and stronger transactional ties. In contrast, sector-specific performance indicators such as earning levels and job creation or destruction rates contribute only marginally to explaining worker flows. Only job creation in destination industries and job destruction in source industries exhibit significant effects. These findings underscore the importance of structural compatibility between industries in shaping worker mobility, and present significant implications for the design of labor adjustment programs in the process of sectoral transformation. [TR] Bu calisma, Turkiye’de sektorler arasi isgucu hareketliligi dinamiklerini yapisal bir cekim modeli cercevesinde incelemektedir. Calisma isgucu gecislerinin iki temel boyutu uzerinde odaklanmaktadir: sektorler arasi beceri gereksinimi farkliliklarini olcen "Gorev Mesafesi" ve sektorler arasi girdi-cikti iliskilerinin yogunlugunu yansitan "Ticaret Endeksi". Sosyal Guvenlik Kurumunun isveren–calisan eslestirilmis idari verileri ile Gelir Idaresi Baskanliginin firma duzeyindeki ticaret verilerini kullanarak, 2014–2023 doneminde sektor ciftleri arasindaki isgucu akislari analiz edilmektedir. Sonuclarimiz, en benzer gorev yapilarina sahip olmasi ve daha guclu ticari baglantilara sahip sektorler arasinda isgucu gecislerinin meydana gelme olasiliginin daha yuksek oldugunu gostermektedir. Buna karsilik, kazanc seviyeleri ya da is yaratma ve yok etme oranlari gibi sektore ozgu performans gostergelerinin aciklayici gucu sinirlidir. Yalnizca hedef sektorlerde is yaratma ve kaynak sektorlerdeki is yok etme anlamli etkiler gostermektedir. Bu bulgular, sektorler arasi isgucu hareketliligini sekillendirmede yapisal uyumun oneminin altini cizmekte ve sektorel donusum surecinde isgucu uyum programlarinin tasarimi acisindan onemli cikarimlar sunmaktadir.

Date: 2026
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