Decomposing the Supply and Demand in the Housing Market

Mehmet Selman Colak, Ahmet Deryol and Mehmet Emre Samcı

CBT Research Notes in Economics from Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Abstract: [EN] In this study, based on Shapiro (2024), monthly developments in the housing markets of the 19 regions used in measuring the house price index are identified as either supply- or demand-driven, thereby decomposing changes in house prices and housing sales volumes into supply (consisting of new and second-hand housing for sale) and demand components. The findings indicate that changes in housing-sale volumes during periods of loose monetary policy are largely driven by demand-side factors, while supply constraints limit volume responses. However, this pattern reverses during periods of monetary tightening. Changes in real house price dynamics are also predominantly determined by the demand component. In recent years, however, supply-side contributions to real prices have turned negative, partially offsetting demand pressures. The toolkit provides a practical and timely indicator of dominant market pressures. [TR] Bu calismada, Shapiro (2024) esas alinarak, konut fiyat endeksinin hesaplanmasinda kullanilan 19 bolgenin konut piyasalarindaki aylik gelismelerin arz ya da talep kaynakli oldugu belirlenerek konut fiyatlari ve satis hacimlerindeki degisimler arz (yeni ve ikinci el konut arzini kapsayacak sekilde) ve talep bilesenlerine ayristirilmaktadir. Sonuclar, gevsek para politikasi donemlerinde konut satis hacimlerindeki degisimlerin buyuk olcude talep yonlu faktorler tarafindan belirlendigini, buna karsin arz kisitlarinin hacim tepkilerini sinirladigini gostermektedir. Parasal sikilasma donemlerinde ise bu egilim tersine donmektedir. Reel konut fiyat degisimlerinde de agirlikli olarak talep bileseni belirleyicidir. Son yillarda ise reel fiyatlar uzerindeki arz yonlu katkilar negatif hale gelmis, bu durum talep baskilarini kismen dengelemistir. Gelistirilen arac seti, one cikan piyasa dinamikleri icin pratik ve guncel bir gosterge olusturmaktadir.

Date: 2026
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