Resilience in regional business cycles across the Benelux

Beqiraj Elton, Giovanni Di Bartolomeo (), Marco Di Pietro () and Carolina Serpieri

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Abstract: Focusing on NUTS2 regions of the Benelux area, we develop a methodology suited to measure resilience in regional business cycles. Precisely, we concentrate on the relative aptitude of regions to absorb the business cycle shocks (recoverability) and their ability to isolate themselves from external disturbances (resistance). Based on Bayesian estimations of regional dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models, we focus upon output variability around its natural level. After estimating region-specific models, by building counterfactual DSGE reference models, we disentangle the recovery aptitude and resistance capacity of each region within the Benelux over the period 1981-2015. Exploring the role played by region specific differences and ranking regional resilience in terms of these two measures draw a picture for policy purposes by supporting the design of structural reforms and the implementation of territorial strategies within the area under analysis.

Date: 2018-12
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Chapter: Resilience in regional business cycles across the Benelux (2020)
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