TASHQI DAVLAT QARZINING VALYUTA TUZILMASI VA UNING QARZ BARQARORLIGIGA TA’SIRI TAHLILI

Sanakulova B. R. and Jamolov M.M.

GREEN ECONOMY AND DEVELOPMENT, 2025, vol. 3, issue 12

Abstract: Ushbu maqola O‘zbekiston Respublikasi tashqi davlat qarzining valyuta tarkibini o‘rganishga bag‘ishlangan.Ishning maqsadi qarz mablag‘larini qaysi valyutalarda jalb qilish maqsadga muvofiqligini va valyuta kurslarining o‘zgarishitashqi qarz dinamikasiga qanday ta’sir ko‘rsatishini aniqlashdan iborat. Tahlil uchun omillarning dinamik ta’siri vaendogenligini hisobga olgan holda ikki qadamli regressiya usuli (2SLS) bilan baholangan ekonometrik model qo‘llanildi.Tadqiqot natijalari shuni ko‘rsatadiki, AQSH dollarida tashqi qarzlarni jalb qilish umumiy tashqi qarzning o‘sishiga eng kattata’sir ko‘rsatadi, ayrim boshqa valyutalarda (masalan, Xitoy yuani, Janubiy Koreya voni) qarz olish esa statistik jihatdanqarz yukining sezilarli darajada oshishiga olib kelmaydi. Olingan natijalar asosida qarz barqarorligini ta’minlashningchegaraviy yondashuvi taklif etiladi: tashqi qarzning kritik darajasi YAIMning 40 foizlik ulushi sifatida belgilandi. Buberilgan shartlar asosida ushbu yilda jalb qilinigi mumkin bo‘lgan yangi tashqi qarzlarning maksimal hajmi taxminan 5,2milliard AQSH dollariga teng bo‘lishini ko‘rsatmoqda.

Keywords: tashqi qarz; YAIM; valyuta tarkibi; qarz yuki; regressiya; ekonmetrik model. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:teu:ged000:v:3:y:2025:i:12:id:8389

DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18036652

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