EKONOMETRIK MODELLASHTIRISH ASOSIDA TEMIR YO‘L TRANSPORTI IQTISODIY FAOLIYATINI PROGNOZLASH: 2030-YILGACHA SSENARIY TAHLILI

Javlonbek Fayzullayev

GREEN ECONOMY AND DEVELOPMENT, 2026, vol. 4, issue 6

Abstract: Mazkur maqolada “O‘zbekiston temir yo‘llari” AJning 2010–2023-yillar statistik maʼlumotlariasosida temir yo‘l transporti iqtisodiy faoliyatining asosiy ko‘rsatkichlarini ekonometrik modellashtirish va2030-yilgacha prognozlash uslubiyati ishlab chiqilgan. Operatsion tushumlar, investitsiya hajmi, tranzittashuvlar, asosiy fondlar va mahalliy yuk tashish hajmlari ko‘rsatkichlari o‘rtasidagi bog‘liqlikni aks ettiruvchiko‘p omilli OLS regressiya modeli tuzilgan. Statsionarlik tekshiruvi uchun Dickey-Fuller testi, vaqtli qatorlaruchun ARIMA(2,1,2) va ARIMA(1,2,2) modellari, tranzit va mahalliy yuklar uchun eksponensial trend modellariqo‘llanilgan. Prognoz natijalariga ko‘ra, 2023-yildagi 12 085,5 mlrd so‘mlik tushum 2030-yilga kelib 23 250,9mlrd so‘mga, mahalliy tashilgan yuklar esa 65,5 mln tonnadan 84,7 mln tonnaga yetishi kutilmoqda.

Keywords: ekonometrik model; ARIMA; OLS regressiya; prognozlash; temir yo‘l transporti; operatsion tushum; investitsiyalar; Dickey-Fuller testi; ssenariy tahlili. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://yashil-iqtisodiyot-taraqqiyot.uz/journal/i ... D/article/view/11407 Abstract page (text/html)
https://yashil-iqtisodiyot-taraqqiyot.uz/journal/i ... /download/11407/9548 Full text (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:teu:ged000:v:4:y:2026:i:6:id:11407

DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.20963427

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in GREEN ECONOMY AND DEVELOPMENT from "Ma'rifat-Print-Media" LLC, Tashkent State University of Economics
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Xayrulla ().