What Next for the Post Covid Global Economy: Could Negative Supply Shocks Disrupt Other Fragile Systems?

William White

No inetwp199, Working Papers Series from Institute for New Economic Thinking

Abstract: There is a reasonable likelihood that that the next global economic crisis could threaten the future of democracy. The economic system is a complex, adaptive system (CAS) subject to "tipping points" when underlying stresses lead to crisis. Moreover, the economic system is nested within a number of other CAS; political, environmental and public health among others. Looking forward, recurrent negative supply shocks imply a dangerous future of higher real interest rates and debt distress leading to either deflation (private debt distress) or higher inflation (sovereign debt distress). Such problems could threaten democratic political systems that are already showing signs of significant stress themselves. The paper finishes with some reflections on policy alternatives.

Keywords: Covid; financial system; supply shocks; inflation; sovereign debt; climate change (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E31 F34 I18 Q58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 19 pages
Date: 2023-01-22
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-env
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Published

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.ineteconomics.org/uploads/papers/WP_199-White-Post-Covid.pdf (application/pdf)
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4357440 First version, 2023 (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:thk:wpaper:inetwp199

DOI: 10.36687/inetwp199

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Papers Series from Institute for New Economic Thinking Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Pia Malaney ().