Forecasting of the Number of the International Tourism Arrivals for the Needs of the Bulgarian International Airports

Sophia Mirchova
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Sophia Mirchova: South-West University ‘Neofit Rislki,’ Bulgaria

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Abstract: The international airports in Bulgaria are put under serious pressure by the low cost carriers to make innovations that would allow them to attract a greater passenger flow. The problem of forecasting of the international tourism arrivals on place is crucial to the formation of proper innovation infrastructure policy for the future development of the airports. This paper proposes present paper regards several major problems in the application of exponential smoothing methods for the purpose of the international tourism arrivals on the Bulgarian international airports (the Sofia International Airport in particular), such as: (i) the problem of determining the time series pattern; (ii) the selection of a suitable forecasting method; (iii) Calculating of short-run and longrun forecasts; and (iv) the comparison of the results of the forecast techniques on the basis of the errors in the forecasts. In regards to the time series available the Halt-Winters smoothing method is being suggested as the most appropriate for the needs of the Bulgarian airports and the process of planning of their infrastructure. The paper also provides some conclusions and recommendations for the innovation infrastructure policy of the Bulgarian international airports on the attraction of the budget, low-cost carriers Suggestions are also given for the necessary improvements in the airport infrastructure.

Keywords: international tourism arrivals; international airports; innovation infrastructure policy; exponential smoothing; forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
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