Forecasting of the Needs of the Infrastructure Policy in Tourism in Bulgaria

Sophia Mirchova
Additional contact information
Sophia Mirchova: SWU Neofit Rilski, Bulgaria

from ToKnowPress

Abstract: The infrastructure policy in tourism in Bulgaria is put under serious pressure by the abundance of new strategic documents which the country was obliged to adopt in connection with its membership in the European Union. The problem of forecasting in the strategic documents is crucial to the formation of proper innovation infrastructure policy for the future development of the tourism in the country. This paper is aimed at presenting the lack of real forecasting in many of the strategic documents adopted for the development of the infrastructure policy in Bulgaria (i.e. the National Strategy for Integrated Development of Infrastructure of the Republic of Bulgaria 2006-2015, the National Strategy for Regional Development of the Republic of Bulgaria for the period 2005-2015, the Strategy of Development of the Transport System of the Republic of Bulgaria until 2020, the Strategy for development of the Transport Infrastructure of Bulgaria until 2015, the Strategy for Development of the Transport Infrastructure through the Mechanisms of the Concession, the National Strategy for Sustainable Tourism Development in Bulgaria covering the period 2009-2013, the National Program for Development of Agriculture 2014-2020, National Environmental Strategy 2009-2018, the Innovation Strategy for Intelligent Specialization 2014-2020, and the EU Strategy on the Danube region). The paper provides a practical example for the use of the Halt-Winters method of exponential smoothing on the number of tourism arrival at the Sofia International airport. The achieved forecast value can be further used for setting more clear and achievable goals in above mentioned types of strategic planning documents.

Keywords: strategic documents; tourism policy; infrastructure policy; exponential smoothing forecasting; Hal-Winters method (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.toknowpress.net/ISBN/978-961-6914-09-3/papers/ML14-600.pdf full text (application/pdf)
http://www.toknowpress.net/ISBN/978-961-6914-09-3/MakeLearn2014.pdf Conference Programme (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:tkp:mklp14:587-596

Access Statistics for this chapter

More chapters in Human Capital without Borders: Knowledge and Learning for Quality of Life; Proceedings of the Management, Knowledge and Learning International Conference 2014 from ToKnowPress
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Maks Jezovnik ().