Scientific Basis for “Reducing Contact by 80%â€

Yasushi Iwamoto
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Yasushi Iwamoto: Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo

No CIRJE-J-306, CIRJE J-Series from CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo

Abstract: This paper evaluates the impact of the confusion between new infection and infected persons in the analysis of the mathematical model of infectious diseases that provided the scientific basis for the “reducing contact by 80%†measure in the spring of 2020, on the rationale and choice of countermeasure. The initial idea of the emergency declaration was to limit the number of new infections to within the capacity of the contact tracing within one month. It was projected to take about 34 days for the 70% reduction. However, after correcting for the variable confusion, the 70% reduction was confirmed to be achieved within one month, even with the reporting delay. Since this conclusion has a completely different implication, the advice given to the policymaker cannot be said to be scientifically correct, and unfortunately, the 80% reduction was not based on scientific evidence.

Pages: 15 pages
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:tky:jseres:2023cj306

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