An Augmented Gravity Model for Forecasting Passenger Air Traffic on City-pair Routes

Tim Hazledine

Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, 2017, vol. 51, issue 3, 208--224

Abstract: Abstract Demand and supply for commercial air travel are not independent. A more popular route allows airlines to increase the number of non-stop flights, which further shifts demand. Forecasting future air travel demand on inter-city routes requires distinguishing endogenous and exogenous determinants of service quality. The paper presents successful econometric estimates of gravity-based models of passenger numbers with subsidiary models of (a) price (controlling for airline competition), (b) provision of non-stop services, and (c) frequency of daily flights, for two markets: cross-border flights between Canada and the USA, and domestic air travel within New Zealand.

Date: 2017
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:tpe:jtecpo:2017:51:3:208--224

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