Doing More with Less: Predicting Primary Care Provider Effectiveness
Janet Currie and
Jonathan Zhang
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Janet Currie: Princeton University
Jonathan Zhang: Duke University and Veterans Health Administration
The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2025, vol. 107, issue 2, 289-305
Abstract:
We use data from the Veterans Administration to examine the efficacy of primary care providers (PCPs). Leveraging quasi-random assignment of veterans to PCPs, we measure effectiveness using ambulatory care sensitive conditions (ACSC) and hospitalizations/emergency department (ED) visits for mental health or circulatory conditions. PCPs’ variation along these dimensions predicts future outcomes. For example, a 1 standard deviation improvement in mental health effectiveness reduces patient risk of death by 3.8% and lowers costs by 4.4% over the next three years. More effective PCPs do more with less: their patients have fewer primary care visits, specialist referrals, lab panels, or imaging tests.
Date: 2025
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https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01290
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:tpr:restat:v:107:y:2025:i:2:p:289-305
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