Lockdowns and Innovation: Evidence from the 1918 Flu Pandemic

Enrico Berkes, Olivier Deschênes, Ruben Gaetani, Jeffrey Lin and Christopher Severen
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Enrico Berkes: The Ohio State University
Olivier Deschênes: University of California, Santa Barbara, IZA, and NBER
Ruben Gaetani: University of Toronto
Jeffrey Lin: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
Christopher Severen: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2025, vol. 107, issue 3, 853-863

Abstract: Does social distancing harm innovation? We estimate the effect of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs)—policies that restrict interactions in an attempt to slow the spread of disease—on local invention. We construct a panel of issued patents and NPIs adopted by 50 large U.S. cities during the 1918 flu pandemic. Difference-in-differences estimates show that cities adopting longer NPIs did not experience a decline in patenting during the pandemic relative to short-NPI cities, and they recorded higher patenting afterward. Rather than reduce local invention by restricting localized knowledge spillovers, NPIs adopted during the pandemic may have preserved other inventive factors.

Date: 2025
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