Does Index Speculation Impact Commodity Prices? An Intraday Futures Analysis Using intraday data, we find that unidirectional causality runs from commodity index linked commodity futures to non-index linked commodity futures for up to one hour but disappears when using daily data. Also, the economic significance of index to non-index commodity transmission declines to zero within about an hour. Finally, we find that the magnitude of index-to-non index returns relationships are positively related to the amount of speculation, both long and short, in the GSCI commodity index futures contract. We conclude that speculative pressures exerted by commodity index investors can impact non-index commodities. These results are likely not due to speculative pressure itself, but rather the subsequent price destabilizing trades of uninformed, positive feedback traders

Tse, Yiuman; Williams, Michael

Does Index Speculation Impact Commodity Prices? An Intraday Futures Analysis Using intraday data, we find that unidirectional causality runs from commodity index linked commodity futures to non-index linked commodity futures for up to one hour but disappears when using daily data. Also, the economic significance of index to non-index commodity transmission declines to zero within about an hour. Finally, we find that the magnitude of index-to-non index returns relationships are positively related to the amount of speculation, both long and short, in the GSCI commodity index futures contract. We conclude that speculative pressures exerted by commodity index investors can impact non-index commodities. These results are likely not due to speculative pressure itself, but rather the subsequent price destabilizing trades of uninformed, positive feedback traders

Yiuman Tse and Michael Williams
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Yiuman Tse: University of Texas at San Antonio
Michael Williams: University of Texas at San Antonio

No 7, Working Papers from College of Business, University of Texas at San Antonio

Keywords: Commodity Futures; Commodity Index Futures; Speculation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G00 G13 G14 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 44 pages
Date: 2011-12-20
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