Terms of trade cycles in extreme land abundant countries, 1870-2009. Spectral analysis

José Luis Arrufat, Alberto Martín Díaz Cafferata and José Antonio Viceconte

No 05/11, Working Papers from Instituto Universitario de Análisis Económico y Social

Abstract: Spectral analysis is applied to the empirical identification of terms of trade cycles, in the secular evolution, 1870-2009, of a group of extreme-landabundant countries: Argentina, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and Uruguay. Estimates of the power density spectrum functions produce statistically significant spectral peaks associated with long-run cycle periods between 24 and 56 years, with a mode of about 28 years for all five countries, and the variance decomposition shows that these long-run cycles account for a very substantial fraction, between 68% and 83%, of the TOT total variance. These results are very robust to changes in the choice of truncation lag, as well as to the type of spectral window (Parzen and Bartlett) used in the estimations.

Keywords: terms of trade; cycles; land abundance; policy; export specialization; volatility; spectral analysis; frequency domain (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 42 pages
Date: 2011-06
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:uae:wpaper:0511

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