World GDP, Anthropogenic Emissions, and Global Temperatures, Sea Level, and Ice Cover

Luca Benati

Diskussionsschriften from Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft

Abstract: I use Bayesian VARs with stochastic volatility to forecast global temperatures and sea level and ice cover in the Northern hemisphere until 2100, by exploiting (i) their long-run equilibrium relationship with climate change drivers (CCDs) and (ii) the relationship between world GDP and anthropogenic CCDs. Assuming that trend GDP growth will remain unchanged after 2024, and the world economy will fully decarbonize by 2050, global temperatures and sea level are projected to increase by 2.3 Celsius degrees and 38 centimeters respectively compared to pre-industrial times. Further, uncertainty is substantial, pointing to significant upward risks. Because of this, bringing climate change under control will require massive programme of carbon removal from the atmosphere, in order to bring anthropogenic CCDs back to the levels of the end of the XX century.

Keywords: Climate Change; Bayesian VARs; stochastic volatility; cointegration; forecasting; conditional forecasts (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E2 E3 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-03
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