Climate Hazards, Childhood Experiences, and Development Trajectories: The Long-Term Impact of GLOF Exposure

Olivia Finan, Kira Finan and Orla Doyle

No 202604, Working Papers from School of Economics, University College Dublin

Abstract: This study examines the long-term impact of childhood exposure to Glacier Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) on adult human capital outcomes in the High Mountain Asia (HMA) region. Using historical GLOF data and geospatial mapping of downstream flood pathways, we identify treatment and control groups based on geographic proximity. Exposed children attain 1.4 to 1.7 fewer years of schooling and have a 1.9 to 2.2 kg/mš lower Body Mass Index (BMI) in adulthood compared to non-exposed children. Moreover, rural adolescents face greater educational losses, whereas urban residents experience more pronounced health impacts. Our findings provide valuable insights into the long-term costs of climate-induced disasters and underscore the need for targeted risk reduction strategies in vulnerable mountain communities.

Keywords: Childhood exposure; Glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs); Human capital investment; Climate change (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I15 O13 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 69 pages
Date: 2026-02
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