Rapid Increases in Methane Concentrations following August 2020 Suspension of the US Methane Rule

Xinming Du, Muye Ru and Douglas Almond

Environmental and Energy Policy and the Economy, 2025, vol. 6, issue 1, 42 - 64

Abstract: In August 2020, the Trump administration removed Obama-era federal requirements that oil and gas firms detect and repair methane leaks. We merge geographic information system coordinates of 1,193,575 wells, 478 natural gas processing facilities, and 1,367 compressor stations to geo-identified methane concentrations from the European TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI, satellite instrument). Using a difference-in-differences design, we find a large, prompt increase in US methane emissions at oil and gas infrastructure sites following the August 2020 rollback relative to areas without such infrastructure. Average methane concentrations increased by 5 parts per billion (ppb), or one-quarter of a standard deviation. The number of high methane emission events from the oil and gas sector more than doubled relative to the coal sector, which did not experience the rollback. Gas producers and distributors have argued they face an overriding incentive to minimize fugitive methane emissions and venting without regulation—so as to recover and sell a valuable commercial product. The large and nimble response to federal policy we find—together with basic microeconomic theory—indicates otherwise and provides empirical support for policy’s central role in curbing global methane concentrations.

Date: 2025
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