The Effects of Increased Sentencing Severity on Fertility and Family Formation

Siobhan M. O’Keefe

Journal of Law and Economics, 2026, vol. 69, issue 4, 825 - 851

Abstract: The United States’ incarceration rate more than quintupled after 1970, reaching a peak of 1 percent of adults in 2007. Using an intensity-of-treatment research design, I examine the effect on women’s fertility and family formation of a policy change that increased sentencing severity. The results show that after this policy was enacted, unmarried and young Black women experienced a decrease in fertility, and the composition of births shifted toward mothers with higher socioeconomic status. Among those who gave birth, the quality of partner matches declined. Additionally, white women were less likely to be married, while there was no effect on the marriage rates of Black women.

Date: 2026
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