Analisis determinan ekspor di 5 negara ASEAN

Ari Rudatin () and Rizki Radityo Dhiafajri ()

Jurnal Kebijakan Ekonomi dan Keuangan, 2025, vol. 4, issue 1, 94-102

Abstract: Purpose – This study aims to analyze the effects of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), imports, inflation, and exchange rates on exports in five ASEAN countries during the period 2014–2023.Methods – The research employs secondary data in the form of panel data from five ASEAN countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Cambodia, and the Philippines) over the period 2014–2023. Panel data estimation is applied, and the Fixed Effect Model (FEM) is identified as the most appropriate model for this dataset.Findings – The results show that FDI has a positive but insignificant effect on exports, imports have a positive and significant effect, inflation has a negative but insignificant effect, while the exchange rate has no effect.Implication – The findings suggest the need for well-directed import policies to support export-oriented production, macroeconomic stabilization measures, and greater alignment of FDI with export-oriented sectors to enhance its contribution.Originality – This study contributes to the empirical literature on international trade in ASEAN by providing new evidence and offering more targeted policy recommendations for stakeholders. AbstrakTujuan – Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), impor, inflasi, dan nilai tukar terhadap ekspor di lima negara ASEAN periode 2014–2023.Metode – Penelitian ini menggunakan data sekunder berupa data panel dari 5 negara ASEAN (Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Kamboja, dan Filipina) selama periode 2014-2023. Metode data panel untuk Fixed Effect Model (FEM) adalah model yang paling sesuai untuk data ini.Temuan – Penelitian ini menemukan bahwa FDI berpengaruh positif tetapi tidak signifikan, impor berpengaruh positif dan signifikan, inflasi berpengaruh negatif tetapi tidak signifikan, dan nilai tukar tidak berpengaruh.Implikasi – Hasil penelitian berimplikasi pada diperlukan kebijakan impor terarah untuk mendukung produksi ekspor, stabilisasi makroekonomi, dan fokus FDI pada sektor berorientasi ekspor agar kontribusinya optimal.Orisinalitas – Penelitian ini memperkaya literatur empiris terkait perdagangan internasional di ASEAN dan memberikan rekomendasi kebijakan yang lebih terukur bagi para pemangku kepentingan.

Keywords: ekspor; Foreign Direct Investment (FDI); Import; Inflasi; nilai tukar (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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