The Financial Cycle Index of Ukraine

Adam Gersl, Pervin Dadashova (), Yuliya Bazhenova (), Anatolii Hlazunov () and Danylo Krasovytskyi ()
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Pervin Dadashova: National Bank of Ukraine
Yuliya Bazhenova: National Bank of Ukraine
Anatolii Hlazunov: National Bank of Ukraine
Danylo Krasovytskyi: National Bank of Ukraine

No 01/2025, Working Papers from National Bank of Ukraine

Abstract: This study introduces the financial cycle index as a means to identify the position of the Ukrainian economy in the financial cycle. The index encompasses 16 indicators aggregated into four subindices that capture cyclical systemic risks stemming from the immoderate debt burden of the private sector, the easing of lending conditions, excessive growth of real estate prices, and macroeconomic imbalances. This financial cycle measure can be used as one of a number of guidelines when making policy decisions on the use of countercyclical prudential instruments to prevent the accumulation of cyclical systemic risks and to stabilize the financial system in a timely manner.

Keywords: financial cycle; credit-to-GDP gap; financial cycle index; countercyclical capital buffer (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E32 E51 E58 G01 G21 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 35 pages
Date: 2025-04
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cis, nep-fdg and nep-tra
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ukb:wpaper:01/2025

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