The Double-Digit Trigger: Estimating Inflation Attention Thresholds in Ukraine Using Parliamentary Speeches
Olga Bondarenko ()
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Olga Bondarenko: National Bank of Ukraine
No 03/2025, Working Papers from National Bank of Ukraine
Abstract:
This paper estimates Ukraine's inflation attention threshold using a text-based proxy derived from the relative frequency of the word "inflation" in parliamentary speeches. During a relatively stable macroeconomic period between 2017 and 2022, the estimated threshold is approximately 9-10%. This finding aligns with results obtained using Google Trends data, where attention increased just prior to inflation reaching double-digit levels. Crucially, the parliamentary proxy also facilitates estimation for another stable period preceding the global financial crisis (2002-2007). The remarkably similar threshold estimates across both stable periods suggest that attention dynamics in Ukraine exhibit structural consistency under non-crisis conditions. These findings underscore the value of parliamentary speech analysis as a robust tool for tracking inflation salience in contexts with limited data availability.
Keywords: inflation; attention; parliamentary speeches; threshold regression; monetary policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C82 D83 E31 E52 E71 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 30 pages
Date: 2025-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cis and nep-mon
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ukb:wpaper:03/2025
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