A New Approach to Studying Unemployment and Economic Growth Relationship

María Porras and Mauricio Suárez Cal ()
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Mauricio Suárez Cal: Inter-American Development Bank

No 26-10, Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) from Instituto de Economía - IECON

Abstract: Okun’s law, which examines the relationship between unemployment and economic growth, has been the subject of extensive research since Arthur Okun’s seminal contribution, which relied on three single-equation models: the differences model, the gap model, and the trend-adjusted elasticity model. The Okun coefficient derived from these single-equation approaches summarizes in a single value the aggregate effects of economic growth on different labor market variables, but does not allow one to identify what's behind the law. This article proposes an alternative framework for studying the unemployment–growth relationship by estimating a multi-equation system that captures the dynamics of the labor market, identifying the differentiated effects of economic growth on different labor market variables. Through a simulation exercise, this method shows the specific channels through which economic growth affects unemployment, thereby providing valuable insights for the design of more effective public policies. We apply this new approach to Uruguay, a country that exhibits a statistically significant Okun relationship, though one that is relatively weak compared with advanced economies. The results show that economic growth has a direct impact on employment, labor supply, and wages, and through wages, it has an indirect impact on employment and labor supply. The combination of all these effects is summarized in a weak reaction of unemployment to changes in economic activity, and this is because in that country, labor supply exhibits strong procyclical behavior, which partially reduces the strong reaction of employment to economic growth.

Keywords: Okun's law; Unemployment; Employment; Labor supply; Economic growth; ARDL (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 E24 J21 J23 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 21 pages
Date: 2026-07
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https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/56346

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ulr:wpaper:dt-10-26

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