College and Career Ready: How Well Does State Assessment Performance Predict?

Darrin DeChane, Takako Nomi () and Michael Podgursky
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Darrin DeChane: Sinquefield Center for Applied Economic Research, Saint Louis University, https://www.slu.edu/research/sinquefield-center-for-applied-economic-research/index.php
Takako Nomi: Sinquefield Center for Applied Economic Research, Saint Louis University, https://www.slu.edu/education/faculty/takako-nomi.php

No 2507, Working Papers from Department of Economics, University of Missouri

Abstract: Missouri, like most other states, uses assessments in its accountability system that purport to indicate whether a student is on a pathway to “college and career readiness.†The state longitudinal data system now has the capacity to directly test that claim. This study makes use of 8th-grade MAP scores in Math, Science, and Communication Arts for roughly 260,000 first-time Missouri freshman who began high school between Fall, 2009 and Fall, 2012. These students were tracked through high school and for five years following on-time high school graduation. Here are some key findings: There is a very strong positive association between MAP performance scores in 8th grade Math, Science, and Communication Arts and post-secondary college attendance and degree completion. This is true for the overall population and for White, Black, and Hispanic students disaggregated by gender. Proficiency matters on a single exam. Within the first five years following on-time high school graduation, a student who scored Proficient on any of the 8th grade MAP assessments is twice as likely to earn a post-secondary degree and three times as likely to earn a four-year degree as a student who scored Basic. Proficiency matters even more on all three exams. If all Missouri students who scored below Proficient on the 8th-grade MAP assessments raised their scores to Proficient, the number of students earning post-secondary degrees would increase by roughly 50 percent. The number of Black and Hispanic students earning post-secondary degrees would increase by roughly 152 and 75 percent, respectively. In sum, 8th-grade MAP proficiency scores are highly informative about whether students are on a pathway to “college and career readiness.â€

Keywords: Education Policy; Economics of Education (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I20 I21 I28 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 32
Date: 2025-04-13
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