Screening for a Chronic Disease: A Multiple Stage Duration Model with Partial Observability

Gabriel Picone (), Arseniy Yashkin (), Thomas Mroz and Frank Sloan
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Arseniy Yashkin: Department of Economics, University of South Florida

No 213, Working Papers from University of South Florida, Department of Economics

Abstract: This study develops a discrete multiple state duration model for screen- ing a chronic disease that allows for duration dependence, unmeasured heterogeneity, partial observability of the state and endogenous treat- ment. We study whether screening for diabetes is e�ective in delaying progression of complications of the lower extremities. Our results show that early diagnoses of diabetes reduces the probabilities of transitioning to a worse disease stage, death or amputation. In particular, decreasing the time screening for the onset of diabetes from every four years to once a year after age 65 saves: 54 lives, 10 amputations, and 89 lower extremity complications of 10,000 individuals by age 80.

Keywords: Screening; parital observability; chronic disease (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C14 C41 C51 I12 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 35 pages
Date: 2013-01
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Related works:
Journal Article: SCREENING FOR A CHRONIC DISEASE: A MULTIPLE STAGE DURATION MODEL WITH PARTIAL OBSERVABILITY (2016)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:usf:wpaper:0213

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