Filtering and Forecasting Spot Electricity Prices in the Increasingly Deregulated Australian Electricity Market

Max Stevenson
Additional contact information
Max Stevenson: Discipline of Finance, University of Sydney

No 63, Research Paper Series from Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney

Abstract: Modelling and forecasting the volatile spot pricing process for electricity presents a number of challenges. For increasingly deregulated electricity markets, like that in the Australian state of New South Wales, there is need to price a range of derivative securities used for hedging. Any derivative pricing model that hopes to capture the pricing dynamics within this market must be able to cope with the extreme volatility of the observed spot prices. By applying wavelet analysis, we examine both the price and demand series at different time locations and levels of resolution to reveal and differentiate what is signal and what is noise. Further, we cleanse the data of leakage from the high frequency, mean reverting price spikes into the more fundamental levels of frequency resolution. As it is from these levels that we base the reconstruction of our filtered series, we need to ensure they are least contaminated by noise. Using the filtered data, we explore time series models as possible candidates for explaining the pricing process and evaluate their forecasting ability. These models include one from the threshold autoregressive (AR) model. What we find is that models from the TAR class produce forecasts that best appear to capture the mean and variance components of the actual data.

Keywords: electricity; wavelets, time series models; forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 31 pages
Date: 2001-09-01
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (25)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.qfrc.uts.edu.au/research/research_papers/rp63.pdf (application/pdf)
Our link check indicates that this URL is bad, the error code is: 404 Not Found (http://www.qfrc.uts.edu.au/research/research_papers/rp63.pdf [301 Moved Permanently]--> http://www.uts.edu.au/node/51831 [301 Moved Permanently]--> https://www.uts.edu.au/node/51831)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:uts:rpaper:63

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Research Paper Series from Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney PO Box 123, Broadway, NSW 2007, Australia. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Duncan Ford ().